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Forint Eases Off Daily High Following US Data

HUF
EURHUF has recovered from its intraday lows following the stronger-than-expected US retail sales data and accompanying uptick in the dollar, with the cross now dealing around 385.00. Despite the slight uptick, EURHUF remains below the 50-day EMA, which intersects today at 385.68. A more sustained break of this average would be a bearish development and expose 382.63, the Sep 15 low, and potentially 378.24, the Aug 30 low. But for now, the move lower is considered corrective.
  • Positive developments on the EU funds front is supporting the forint following comments from Tibor Navracsics, the minister for EU funds, who said the “final, closing phase” of talks on unlocking EU financing will be held on Thursday.
  • HUF generally has been performing resiliently this month amid persistent rhetoric from NBH officials who have stressed that actions at upcoming rate setting meetings will be made in a data-dependent, cautious manner. Should conditions facilitate continued large-scale cuts instead, erosion of Hungary’s favourable rate differential may begin to limit HUF gains. The next NBH meeting is scheduled for Oct 24.
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