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Forint Outperforms CE3 Peers, HUFJPY Retreats After Test of Multi-Year High

HUF
  • The forint is outperforming its CE3 peers at the start of the week, with EURHUF trading close to a 2-week low at typing. The cross has now erased roughly half of the April 5-19 upleg, with today’s downtick resulting in a breach of the 50-day EMA at 392.08. A clear break of this average could expose 388.34, the April 5 low.
  • Initial JPY weakness overnight led to a sharp spike in HUFJPY, coinciding with USDJPY above 160.00. HUFJPY tested the November 16 high of 43.7082, before the ensuing price action linked to strong indications of Japanese intervention resulted in a substantial reversal lower. At typing, the cross sits at around 42.5842, down 1.3% on the session.
  • The flash reading of Q1 Hungarian GDP data is on the docket tomorrow morning, with growth expected to have risen +0.5% Q/Q (compared to flat growth in Q4-2023) on the back of fading supply shocks and tentative signs of improvement in Euro area activity.
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