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Forint Partially Recovers from Post-Virag Lows, EURHUF Settles Below 50-Day EMA

HUF
  • EURHUF has dipped back below the 50-day EMA, at 380.75, and towards yesterday’s highs in recent trade. The initial spike on the back of Virag’s comments took the cross to a high of 381.45, with performance of the forint is now closer to that of its CE3 peers.
  • Continued pushback from Fed and ECB officials over the prospect of early rate cuts has weighed on the forint, with the increasing likelihood of a 100bp rate cut at the next NBH meeting further threatening HUF’s still-generous carry profile. The central bank meet next on Jan 30.
  • PLNHUF had fallen to a fresh multi-week low yesterday but is trading 0.29% in the green today. Meanwhile, CZKHUF is slightly higher on the day but still within relatively close proximity to its recent lows. For EURHUF, a sustained break of the aforementioned EMA is needed to expose the mid-December highs at 385.77.
  • With the local data slate thin for the remainder of the week, attention today turns to pre-media blackout appearances from ECB’s Vujcic, Knot and Lagarde as well as Fed’s Barr, Bowman and Williams.
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