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Forint Softens Despite More Benign Risk Backdrop

HUF
EURHUF has edged slightly higher and remains close to yesterday’s highs, despite the dollar failing to build off pullback lows, with yields across the US curve lower again also. Furthermore, despite softer-than-expected inflation prints in both Poland and Czechia, the Hungarian forint has failed to outperform its regional peers, with PLNHUF flat on the day at typing and CZKHUF 0.12% in the green.
  • Upside momentum in EURHUF accelerated yesterday when the central bank voted 7-2 in favour of the 75bp cut delivered last month - marking the first dissenting views among the council since 2016. The prospect of a more dovish NBH policy mix combined with market re-pricing of early Fed rate cuts have been the primary headwinds for the HUF, which has recorded the second-most spot losses against the euro on a YTD basis in the EMEA region (HUF: -1.47%; PLN: +0.01%; CZK: -2.81%).
  • The short-term outlook remains technically bullish. A continuation higher would open 390.49, the Jan 30 high. Clearance of this hurdle would expose 394.67, the Aug 3 ‘23 high. On the downside, a break of the 50-day EMA – at 383.99 – is required to instead reinstate a bearish theme.
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