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Forint Underperformance Evidence of Bearish HUF Outlook

HUF
  • Greenback strength was evident against the CNH during Asian hours, with the sustained uptick in the USD index unhindered at the start of the European session. Indeed, EUR/USD is down around 0.5% at typing, closing in on the 1.0796 Feb 29 low. Single currency weakness is providing a headwind to the CE3 euro-proxies though the HUF is a notable underperformer in the region.
  • The more bearish outlook on the forint is potentially accounting for its out-scaled weakness compared to that of the Polish zloty and Czech koruna. EUR/HUF briefly pierced the 397.00 handle in recent trade, recording a new weekly high and narrowing the gap to resistance at the 400.00 handle.
  • Technical conditions in EUR/HUF remain bullish with the pullback from cycle highs earlier in March considered corrective. Fresh trend highs maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, signalling scope for an extension towards the aforementioned 400.00 handle as well as key resistance at 402.45, the Mar 20 2023 high.
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