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Forint Weakens as Global Factors Remain the Key Driver

HUF
EURHUF rose to as high as 385.34 through the European open, though the cross has since eased off session bests in recent trade and is now just ~0.2% firmer on the day. Price action places the forint second to only the South African rand at the bottom of the EMEA pile today despite little in the way of domestic catalysts so far, with fresh cycle highs for the US curve still the key driver as 30y, 10y yields hit best levels since 2007. Markets remain on watch for the 10y yield to touch 5.00%, having topped out at 4.979% so far today.
  • EURHUF remains above support at the 50-day EMA – a level which had been well respected over the past month and intersects today at 385.56. The cross has now closed below that average for last two sessions, signalling scope for an extension lower toward 378.24 – the Aug 30 low – further out. Initial resistance is marked at 389.20, the Oct 9 high.
  • Looking ahead, comments following a meeting between Hungarian ministers and EU commission officials regarding frozen EU funds will be eyed. Hungarian minister Navracsics said earlier this week that while he does not expect a deal to be reached Thursday, he still sees the funds being unlocked by the end of next month. Timing of the meeting has not yet been disclosed.
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