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Forward Rates Continue To Rise As Market Anticipates an Early NBP Move

POLAND
  • The Supreme Court's Civil Chamber is holding hearing in another attempt this year to provide guidance over how to resolve court disputes between holders of foreign-currency mortgages and banks (BBG). According to KNF and other estimates, there are 600K CHF denominated mortgages on Polish banks' balance sheets and some of them represent a potential impairing liability for a number of lenders.
  • Forward rates continue to rise following this week's CPI print as traders are speculating that NBP policymakers will have to hike earlier than expected to curb inflationary pressures.
  • As a reminder, economic data showed that inflationary pressures continued to surprise positively in August, with CPI inflation coming in higher than expected at 5.4% YoY (vs. 5.1% exp.), up from 5% the previous month.
  • At this stage, the majority of the NBP members (including Governor Glapinski) is still aiming to keep interest rates low as the economic uncertainty remains elevated.
  • Next meeting is on September 8; NBP is expected to keep its policy rate steady at 0.1%.
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