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MEXICO: Fourth Quarter GDP Expected to Dip to 1.0%

MEXICO
EM BulletMexicoBulletEmerging Market NewsNorth America
  • Mexico will publish GDP data for the fourth quarter on Thursday, with an in-line or weaker-than-expected print expected to solidify the case for bolder easing at the central bank’s MPC meeting next week. 7/18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg are forecasting 1% annual growth, and the data is scheduled for release at 1200GMT/0700ET:
    • Q4 GDP SA Q/q, est. -0.2%, prior 1.1%
    • Q4 GDP NSA Y/y, est. 1.0%, prior 1.6%
  • BBVA expect today’s figures in Mexico could add to the Banxico debate. While they estimate that manufacturing is gradually recovering from the exogenous shocks it experienced during the initial months of 4Q2024, they anticipate a potential impact on production given the tariff threats on Mexican imports. Amid this backdrop, domestic demand likely weakened in 4Q due to falling investment and slower household consumption growth.
  • USDMXN has remained to familiar territory around 20.50, continuing to respect the well-established short-term parameters of 20.10-90. On the local calendar, finance ministry officials will speak on new rules to simplify issuance of securities at an event organized by the British embassy. Separately, Mexico’s Deputy Finance Minister Edgar Amador Zamora will speak to journalists to discuss Q4’24 finances.
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  • Mexico will publish GDP data for the fourth quarter on Thursday, with an in-line or weaker-than-expected print expected to solidify the case for bolder easing at the central bank’s MPC meeting next week. 7/18 economists surveyed by Bloomberg are forecasting 1% annual growth, and the data is scheduled for release at 1200GMT/0700ET:
    • Q4 GDP SA Q/q, est. -0.2%, prior 1.1%
    • Q4 GDP NSA Y/y, est. 1.0%, prior 1.6%
  • BBVA expect today’s figures in Mexico could add to the Banxico debate. While they estimate that manufacturing is gradually recovering from the exogenous shocks it experienced during the initial months of 4Q2024, they anticipate a potential impact on production given the tariff threats on Mexican imports. Amid this backdrop, domestic demand likely weakened in 4Q due to falling investment and slower household consumption growth.
  • USDMXN has remained to familiar territory around 20.50, continuing to respect the well-established short-term parameters of 20.10-90. On the local calendar, finance ministry officials will speak on new rules to simplify issuance of securities at an event organized by the British embassy. Separately, Mexico’s Deputy Finance Minister Edgar Amador Zamora will speak to journalists to discuss Q4’24 finances.