FPÖ Looks To Ally w/EU 'Illiberal' Leaders; Obstacles To Power Remain

Austria holds its federal election on 29 September, and with just under two months to go the right-wing nationalist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) retains a small but consistent lead in opinion polling. This could make the party the largest in the 183-seat National Council, but does not guarantee its position in the next gov't.

• The decision of the centre-right Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) of incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer is likely to prove crucial. Either it could support the FPÖ as a junior partner in a coalition of the right, or look to form a broader 'grand coalition' with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPÖ). Nehammer has ruled out working with FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl, but not the party as a whole.
• In another potential obstacle to gov't, President Alexander van der Bellen has intimated that he could withhold his approval for Kickl to become chancellor. However, as with Nehammer's conditions, this might not preclude another FPÖ figure from taking the chancellery while Kickl directs from the sidelines.
• With the FPÖ sitting alongside Hungarian PM Viktor Orban's Fidesz party in the 'Patriots for Europe' European Parliament group, Kickl has talked up similar pointsthat Orban has proclaimed for years, including calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine and a reduced role for Brussels in national politics. Another head of gov't from the PfE group would give Orban an ally in the form of a new Austro-Hungarian alliance when it comes to votes at the European Council.

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average