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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRIA
Austria holds its federal election on 29 September, and with just under two months to go the right-wing nationalist Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) retains a small but consistent lead in opinion polling. This could make the party the largest in the 183-seat National Council, but does not guarantee its position in the next gov't.
- The decision of the centre-right Austrian People's Party (ÖVP) of incumbent Chancellor Karl Nehammer is likely to prove crucial. Either it could support the FPÖ as a junior partner in a coalition of the right, or look to form a broader 'grand coalition' with the centre-left Social Democrats (SPÖ). Nehammer has ruled out working with FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl, but not the party as a whole.
- In another potential obstacle to gov't, President Alexander van der Bellen has intimated that he could withhold his approval for Kickl to become chancellor. However, as with Nehammer's conditions, this might not preclude another FPÖ figure from taking the chancellery while Kickl directs from the sidelines.
- With the FPÖ sitting alongside Hungarian PM Viktor Orban's Fidesz party in the 'Patriots for Europe' European Parliament group, Kickl has talked up similar pointsthat Orban has proclaimed for years, including calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine and a reduced role for Brussels in national politics. Another head of gov't from the PfE group would give Orban an ally in the form of a new Austro-Hungarian alliance when it comes to votes at the European Council.
Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average
Source: Market, Market-Lazarsfeld, OGM, Unique Research, INSA, IFDD, Peter Hajek, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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