Exclusive interviews with leading policymakers that convey the true policy message that impacts markets.
Reporting on key macro data at the time of release.
Real-time insight on key fixed income and fx markets.
- Emerging MarketsEmerging Markets
Real-time insight of emerging markets in CEMEA, Asia and LatAm region
- MNI ResearchMNI Research
Actionable insight on monetary policy, balance sheet and inflation with focus on global issuance. Analysis on key political risk impacting the global markets.
- About Us
Sign up now for free access to this content.
Please enter your details below and select your areas of interest.
Germany's upcoming federal election on 26 September is likely to prove just the starting point for a period of political uncertainty and torpor, given that there is the strong likelihood of a three-party coalition being required to form a majority gov't.
- As the graphic below shows, if two parties are from the same political bloc (CDU and FDP on the centre-right, SPD and Greens on the centre-left) the coalition talks take around a month or so. However, if parties of opposite ideologies seek to form a gov't (as with the CDU-SPD 'grand coalitions' of 2005, 2013 and 2017, then the negotiation period can take a lot longer.
- With three parties likely to be required to form a majority, with cross-bloc cooperation needed, then incumbent Chancellor Angela Merkel could be leading a caretaker gov't for many months into the future.
Chart 1. Length of Time in Days between Election and Swearing in of Gov't
Source: Bundestag, Statista. N.b Black=CDU, Red=SPD, Gold=FDP, Green=Greens