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FRANCE: Censure Motion Set For 1600CET, 4 Dec-BFM TV

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BFM TV reporting that the National Assembly will take up a motion of censure against the gov't of PM Michel Barnier at 1600CET (1000ET, 1500GMT) on Wednesday 4 December. Following the gov'ts use of Article 49.3 of the Constitution to force the Social Security Finance Bill (PLFSS) through on 2 Dec without a vote, both the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) and far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) have said they will submit censure motions to remove the Barnier gov't. The RN has said that it will back censure motions submitted by other parties as well as its own. 

  • For a censure motion to pass an absolute majority of all 577 deputies - not just those present - is required. This means 289 deputies voting in favour of the motion. The four groups comprising the NFP total 192 deputies. Even with the addition of the regionalist Liberties, Independents, Overseas and Territories (LIOT) group, they would still fall short of the 289 threshold.
  • This makes the action of the RN (125 deputies) and its far-right allies in the UDR (16) crucial. If they vote alongside the NFP for censure the Barnier gov't will fall. However, abstentions will cause the censure motion to fail.
  • Political betting markets show a high, but seemingly not certain, probability that Barnier will be forced from government in 2024. Data from Polymarket gives a 72% implied probability that Barnier is ousted before year-end. 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability Barnier is Out as PM in 2024, %

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BFM TV reporting that the National Assembly will take up a motion of censure against the gov't of PM Michel Barnier at 1600CET (1000ET, 1500GMT) on Wednesday 4 December. Following the gov'ts use of Article 49.3 of the Constitution to force the Social Security Finance Bill (PLFSS) through on 2 Dec without a vote, both the leftist New Popular Front (NFP) and far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) have said they will submit censure motions to remove the Barnier gov't. The RN has said that it will back censure motions submitted by other parties as well as its own. 

  • For a censure motion to pass an absolute majority of all 577 deputies - not just those present - is required. This means 289 deputies voting in favour of the motion. The four groups comprising the NFP total 192 deputies. Even with the addition of the regionalist Liberties, Independents, Overseas and Territories (LIOT) group, they would still fall short of the 289 threshold.
  • This makes the action of the RN (125 deputies) and its far-right allies in the UDR (16) crucial. If they vote alongside the NFP for censure the Barnier gov't will fall. However, abstentions will cause the censure motion to fail.
  • Political betting markets show a high, but seemingly not certain, probability that Barnier will be forced from government in 2024. Data from Polymarket gives a 72% implied probability that Barnier is ousted before year-end. 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability Barnier is Out as PM in 2024, %

Keep reading...Show less