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France Flash Inflation Softer Than Expected

FRANCE DATA
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The latest set of July flash inflation prints from France saw HICP and CPI both on an annual and monthly basis come in softer than expected.

  • HICP came in at +2.6% Y/Y (vs 2.7% consensus, 2.5% prior) and 0.2% M/M (vs 0.3% consensus, 0.2% prior).
  • CPI came in at 2.3% Y/Y (vs 2.4% consensus, 2.1% prior).
  • Looking at the national CPI:
    • Services CPI (which makes up 51.6% of the national CPI index) fell to 2.5% Y/Y (vs 2.9% in June) - the lowest reading since March 2022. On a monthly basis however, services prices rose 1.2% (vs 0.3% prior), driven by the seasonal increase in transport and accommodation prices, which had been highlighted ahead of the release due to the Olympics.
    • Meanwhile, energy prices increased to 8.5% Y/Y (vs 4.8% prior), on a monthly basis energy rose 1.5% (vs -0.8% in the prior month), which was expected given the c. 12% increase in gas prices announced by the regulator.
    • The non-fresh food component was 0.3ppt lower than last month at 0.5% Y/Y.
    • Finally, Non-Energy Industrial Goods remained flat on a yearly basis for the third consecutive month.


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The latest set of July flash inflation prints from France saw HICP and CPI both on an annual and monthly basis come in softer than expected.

  • HICP came in at +2.6% Y/Y (vs 2.7% consensus, 2.5% prior) and 0.2% M/M (vs 0.3% consensus, 0.2% prior).
  • CPI came in at 2.3% Y/Y (vs 2.4% consensus, 2.1% prior).
  • Looking at the national CPI:
    • Services CPI (which makes up 51.6% of the national CPI index) fell to 2.5% Y/Y (vs 2.9% in June) - the lowest reading since March 2022. On a monthly basis however, services prices rose 1.2% (vs 0.3% prior), driven by the seasonal increase in transport and accommodation prices, which had been highlighted ahead of the release due to the Olympics.
    • Meanwhile, energy prices increased to 8.5% Y/Y (vs 4.8% prior), on a monthly basis energy rose 1.5% (vs -0.8% in the prior month), which was expected given the c. 12% increase in gas prices announced by the regulator.
    • The non-fresh food component was 0.3ppt lower than last month at 0.5% Y/Y.
    • Finally, Non-Energy Industrial Goods remained flat on a yearly basis for the third consecutive month.