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France Industrial Production Continues to Stagnate

FRANCE DATA
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France Industrial Production came in below expectations at +0.7% Y/Y in March (+1.4% Y/Y consensus, -0.6% Y/Y revised prior from -0.8% Y/Y), although taking it back to similar levels to January 2024. On a monthly basis, it also underwhelmed at -0.3% M/M (vs +0.3% M/M consensus, +0.2% M/M prior)

  • The downturn was driven by manufacturing production (which accounts for over 80% weighting of industrial production) which fell 0.5% M/M (vs +0.2% M/M consensus; albeit from only four analysts, +1.0% M/M revised prior).
  • Within manufacturing production, there was a reduction in 4 of 5 subcomponents. In particular, 'agri-food industries' fell 0.4% M/M (from +1.3% M/M in February), 'coking and refining' fell 4.6% M/M (from +8.6% M/M prior), 'Fab of capital goods' fell 1.1% M/M - the first fall since December 2023, and 'other industrial products' fell 0.8% M/M (+1.4% M/M prior).
  • The press release highlights due to higher energy costs relative to Q2-21 (i.e. before they were impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine), production in energy-intensive manufacturing is still much lower. Most notably for steel (25% lower) and basic chemicals (-12.6%).
  • Other than manufacturing produce, the main extractive industries, energy and water production areas saw an improvement of +0.7% M/M (vs -3.8% M/M prior).


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France Industrial Production came in below expectations at +0.7% Y/Y in March (+1.4% Y/Y consensus, -0.6% Y/Y revised prior from -0.8% Y/Y), although taking it back to similar levels to January 2024. On a monthly basis, it also underwhelmed at -0.3% M/M (vs +0.3% M/M consensus, +0.2% M/M prior)

  • The downturn was driven by manufacturing production (which accounts for over 80% weighting of industrial production) which fell 0.5% M/M (vs +0.2% M/M consensus; albeit from only four analysts, +1.0% M/M revised prior).
  • Within manufacturing production, there was a reduction in 4 of 5 subcomponents. In particular, 'agri-food industries' fell 0.4% M/M (from +1.3% M/M in February), 'coking and refining' fell 4.6% M/M (from +8.6% M/M prior), 'Fab of capital goods' fell 1.1% M/M - the first fall since December 2023, and 'other industrial products' fell 0.8% M/M (+1.4% M/M prior).
  • The press release highlights due to higher energy costs relative to Q2-21 (i.e. before they were impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine), production in energy-intensive manufacturing is still much lower. Most notably for steel (25% lower) and basic chemicals (-12.6%).
  • Other than manufacturing produce, the main extractive industries, energy and water production areas saw an improvement of +0.7% M/M (vs -3.8% M/M prior).