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FRANCE DATA: France IP Weaker Than Expected

FRANCE DATA
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France Industrial Production was weaker than expected again in October, falling 0.1% M/M (vs 0.3% consensus, -0.8% revised prior from -0.9%) and on an annual basis remained at -0.6% Y/Y (vs -0.2% consensus).

  • The weakness was driven by 'extractive industries' production deteriorating 1.0% M/M (vs -1.3% in September) combined with a flat (0.0% M/M) manufacturing production reading (vs a fall of 0.7% M/M in September).
  • Within manufacturing, manufacture of transport equipment fell 2.4% M/M (vs growth of 1.9% in September) with manufacture of vehicles falling 2.9% M/M (vs a rise of 0.5% in September and now down 10.7% 3m Y/Y). This downside was restricted by production of capital goods rising 1.8% M/M (vs -0.4% prior) as well as an increase in production in coking and refining by 4.8% M/M (vs 4.1% prior).
  • Manufacture of other industrial products was flat M/M vs a fall of 1.9% in September, with textile, clothing, leather and footwear production rising 4.3% M/M (vs 1.0% M/M prior) - the firmest growth since April.
  • Production in the food industry also fell 0.5% M/M (vs a rise of 0.7% in September).
  • The manufacturing PMI for November fell back to its 2024 low of 43.1 and has remained below the breakeven 50 level since February 2023. The PMI release states firms predict further contractions in output in the coming year amidst the quickest decrease in sales to foreign customers for four and a half years, signaling further weakness in production to continue. And this was all before PM Barnier lost the no confidence vote, ramping up political uncertainty even further.
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France Industrial Production was weaker than expected again in October, falling 0.1% M/M (vs 0.3% consensus, -0.8% revised prior from -0.9%) and on an annual basis remained at -0.6% Y/Y (vs -0.2% consensus).

  • The weakness was driven by 'extractive industries' production deteriorating 1.0% M/M (vs -1.3% in September) combined with a flat (0.0% M/M) manufacturing production reading (vs a fall of 0.7% M/M in September).
  • Within manufacturing, manufacture of transport equipment fell 2.4% M/M (vs growth of 1.9% in September) with manufacture of vehicles falling 2.9% M/M (vs a rise of 0.5% in September and now down 10.7% 3m Y/Y). This downside was restricted by production of capital goods rising 1.8% M/M (vs -0.4% prior) as well as an increase in production in coking and refining by 4.8% M/M (vs 4.1% prior).
  • Manufacture of other industrial products was flat M/M vs a fall of 1.9% in September, with textile, clothing, leather and footwear production rising 4.3% M/M (vs 1.0% M/M prior) - the firmest growth since April.
  • Production in the food industry also fell 0.5% M/M (vs a rise of 0.7% in September).
  • The manufacturing PMI for November fell back to its 2024 low of 43.1 and has remained below the breakeven 50 level since February 2023. The PMI release states firms predict further contractions in output in the coming year amidst the quickest decrease in sales to foreign customers for four and a half years, signaling further weakness in production to continue. And this was all before PM Barnier lost the no confidence vote, ramping up political uncertainty even further.