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FRANCE: Macron Gambles On Snap Legislative Election
French President Emmanuel Macron's decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call snap legislative elections following the poor performance from his centrist Renaissance-led alliance in the European Parliament election is a significant gamble. In the EP election, Renaissance and its allies came in a distant second with 14.6% support, well behind the right-wing nationalist Rassembelement National (National Rally, RN) of Marine Le Pen on 31.5%. Even prior to the calling of the snap vote, Macron's group did not hold a majority in the National Assembly, with PM Gabriel Attal reliant on the backing of other parties to pass legislation.
- For Macron, the hope will be that the two-round system used in French elections (first round 30 June, second 7 July) blunts the increased support for RN, with voters from across the political spectrum banding together to back the non-RN candidate should they make it through to the second round.
- At present the most likely outcome is for RN to increase its seat total, but fall short of an overall majority. RN President Jordan Bardella has said that he would serve as Macron's PM, and the prospect of RN becoming the largest party cannot be ruled out.
- 'Cohabitation' (PM and president from different parties) is rare in France, and often hampers policy making and enactment.
- The election will be closely watched in Brussels, with the risk of an increased role for RN in French national politics a major cause for concern given the party's anti-EU, anti-NATO, anti-Ukraine funding stances.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.