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FRANCE: PM Barnier To Set Out Agenda In National Assembly @1500CET

FRANCE
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Prime Minister Michel Barnier is set to deliver his first address to the National Assembly in office at 1500CET (0900ET, 1400BST). The political back-and-forth over the summer as President Emmanuel Macron sought to piece together a workable gov't has meant there has been very little in terms of policy detail released. Today's speech is set to lay out a roadmap for his centre-right gov't over the coming months, with Le Monde noting that "Among the highly anticipated themes are public finances and possible tax increases, ecological transition, health, education, security and immigration."

  • The most pressing issue is the French budget, with a proposal due next week and the EU expecting a plan for France's debt-reduction programme by month-end. Given the state of French public finances, spending cuts are seen as a given. However, Barnier could outline plans for tax increases, something that risks destabilising his already-shaky coalition further. The parties that form the presidential Ensemble bloc have indicated that they will withdraw support should Barnier raise taxes (levies on large corporations and share buybacks have been mooted).
  • In a departure from the long-standing convention (but copying that of his immediate predecessors Gabriel Attal and Elisabeth Borne), Barnier has confirmed that he will not call a confidence vote in his gov't. Such a move is not constitutionally required. The leftist New Popular Front has confirmed it will submit a no-confidence motion this week, but with the far-right Rassemblement National not backing the motion it is set to fail. 
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Prime Minister Michel Barnier is set to deliver his first address to the National Assembly in office at 1500CET (0900ET, 1400BST). The political back-and-forth over the summer as President Emmanuel Macron sought to piece together a workable gov't has meant there has been very little in terms of policy detail released. Today's speech is set to lay out a roadmap for his centre-right gov't over the coming months, with Le Monde noting that "Among the highly anticipated themes are public finances and possible tax increases, ecological transition, health, education, security and immigration."

  • The most pressing issue is the French budget, with a proposal due next week and the EU expecting a plan for France's debt-reduction programme by month-end. Given the state of French public finances, spending cuts are seen as a given. However, Barnier could outline plans for tax increases, something that risks destabilising his already-shaky coalition further. The parties that form the presidential Ensemble bloc have indicated that they will withdraw support should Barnier raise taxes (levies on large corporations and share buybacks have been mooted).
  • In a departure from the long-standing convention (but copying that of his immediate predecessors Gabriel Attal and Elisabeth Borne), Barnier has confirmed that he will not call a confidence vote in his gov't. Such a move is not constitutionally required. The leftist New Popular Front has confirmed it will submit a no-confidence motion this week, but with the far-right Rassemblement National not backing the motion it is set to fail.