FRANCE: PM To Meet w/Gov't Party Leaders ~1345CET As Censure Motion Looms

PM Michel Barnier is set to hold meetings with the leaders of parties in his minority gov't today at 1345CET (0745ET, 1245GMT) as he seeks a way to pass the social security budget without triggering a censure motion against his administration. It had initially been viewed that the crunch time for the Barnier gov't would come between 18-20 Dec with the vote on the main state budget for 2025. However, the far-right Rassemblement National (RN, National Rally) has voiced its opposition to measures included in the social security budget (PLFSS), an associated but separate piece of legislation. 

• A final reading of the PLFSS is set to take place in the National Assembly at 1500CET (0900ET, 1400GMT). At this stage, Barnier will be left with few options. Either he gives in to the RN's 'red lines' in order to gain their support. This carries notable political risk in being accused of working with the far-right. Alternatively, he could force through the PLFSS without a vote using Art. 49.3 of the Constitution. However, RN has said that if the gov't pursues this path the party will back a censure motion from the leftist New Popular Front (NFP). The NFP and RN voting together would far outweigh the gov't and result in the ouster of Barnier and his cabinet.
• If a censure motion is launched, the National Assembly would take it up on 4-5 Dec. RN leader Jordan Bardella claimed earlier that 'barring a last minute miracle', RN would vote for the gov'ts ouster.