France Sept Tracks 12% Weekly Gain

The French front-month power base-load contract is tracking a weekly net increase of 12% amid lower nuclear availability and demand for electric cooling. Germany Sept base load is tracking a small weekly decline as prices have eased back after Monday’s rally.

• France Base Power SEP 24 up 1.4% at 69.8 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power SEP 24 up 0.2% at 92.5 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 0.5% at 72.45 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas SEP 24 up 0.5% at 39.78 EUR/MWh
• TTF front month is trading higher today but is on track to remain net unchanged on the week having held between about €38.5/MWh and €40.4/MWh as the market assess the supply risks from Ukraine’s ongoing incursion into Kursk.
• EU ETS Dec24 is edging higher today with gains in natural gas prices. The next EU EUA CAP 3 auction will clear at 11:00CET today.
• In Germany, wind output is forecast to decline to 1.69GW during base load on Saturday, down from 7.03GW forecast for Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast to fall to 9.6GW during base load, down from11.78GW forecast for Friday according to SpotRenewables.
• German power demand is forecast to peak at 60.23GW on Friday and at 50.6GW on Saturday according to Entso-E.
• In France, nuclear availability declined to 67% of capacity as of Friday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Reuters.
• EdF is no longer curtailing nuclear output at the St Alban, Bugey and Tricastin reactors due to heat.
• 1.33GW Paluel 3 has shut down in an unplanned outage or 24h until Friday evening 23:00 CET.
• In France, wind output is forecast to decline on Saturday to 2.02GW during base load, down from 2.7GW forecast for Friday. Solar PV output is forecast to be decline on the day to 3.02GW on Saturday during base load, down from 3.65GW forecast for Friday according to SpotRenewables.
• The latest 6-10 days ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures in Paris will remain below or in line the seasonal average until 22 August after which temperatures are forecast to rise above normal.
• Power demand in France is forecast to peak at 46.13GW on Friday and at 44.33GW on Saturday, Entso-E data showed.
• France’s net power exports to Belgium are scheduled at 791GW on Friday, down from 2.94GW scheduled for Thursday. To Germany, net exports are scheduled to rise to 2.53GW on Friday, up from 2.08GW scheduled for Thursday. Net exports to Italy are scheduled slightly higher at 2.17GW, compared 2.065GW the day earlier.