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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FRANCE
There remains little clarity how a stable gov't coalition can be formed after the legislative elections. On 8 July, President Emmanuel Macron refused the resignation of PM Gabriel Attal, saying he needed to remain in office 'for now'.
- There is no constitutional demand or timeline for appointing a new gov't. The new National Assembly is due to meet for the first time on 18 July, and the Attal gov't could face an immediate vote of no confidence. However, even the political opponents of Macron and Attal may hold fire for several weeks to allow the gov't to oversee the Olympic Games in Paris, running until 11 August.
- The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance has said it will look to put forward a candidate for PM by the end of this week, but this may prove a difficult task. The largest single party within the NFP is the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) with 74 deputies. As such, it may demand one of its members gets the PM nomination.
- However, given outside support is needed (or at least mass opposition cannot be afforded) a candidate from the centre-left Socialist Party (PS, 59 seats) or the environmentalist Les Ecologistes (LE, 28 seats) would have a greater chance of winning the backing/avoiding the opposition of the Ensemble bloc, and therefore forming a gov't of 'cohabitation'.
- No clear frontrunners at present. PS First Secretary Olivier Faure, LE National Secretary Marine Tondelier, or Place Publique co-leader Raphaël Glucksmann (an MEP not a deputy) could prove acceptable options for Ensemble, but may not garner enough backing from leftists in the NFP.
Chart 1. Result of French Legislative Election, Seats
Source: Le Monde
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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