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EUROPEAN FISCAL: French Budget Deficit Narrows Beyond Seasonal Norms In October

EUROPEAN FISCAL
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MNI (LONDON) - The French YTD general government budget deficit narrowed to E157.4bln in October (vs an updated forecast of E163.2bln for the whole of 2024), a notably smaller deficit than the Jan-Oct 2023 period (E177.7bln).

  • October saw a relatively steep narrowing in the YTD deficit due to the balance of special accounts' component improving to -E10.3bln (vs -E38.4bln in September). The press release notes this is driven by TICFE payments.
  • The October YTD deficit stands at 96% of the updated forecast for total 2024 budget deficit vs 103% of 2023's outturn (note that November usually marks the low point for the year with the month of December usually seeing a surplus).
  • YTD total revenue rose to E280.9bln in October 2024 vs E270.3bln in Jan-Oct 2023.
    • Tax revenues YTD are broadly in-line with Jan-Oct 2023 receipts at E255.7bln (79% of 2024 forecast; vs E254.4bln in Oct 2023 and 79% of 2023 total). All of the major taxes are broadly tracking in line YTD vs last year's outturn.
    • Non-tax revenues increased significantly to E18.8bln YTD and 79% of 2024 total forecast (vs E10.3bln in Jan-Oct 2023 and 41% of 2023 total). The press release notes this is largely due to an EU RRF (part of the NGEU plan) payment that has been received earlier in the year.
  • YTD total expenditure was E428.0bln (vs E434.9bln YTD in October 2023), this represents 85% of the 2024 total expenditure forecast which is marginally higher than where it stood in October last year (83% of 2023 total).

 

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MNI (LONDON) - The French YTD general government budget deficit narrowed to E157.4bln in October (vs an updated forecast of E163.2bln for the whole of 2024), a notably smaller deficit than the Jan-Oct 2023 period (E177.7bln).

  • October saw a relatively steep narrowing in the YTD deficit due to the balance of special accounts' component improving to -E10.3bln (vs -E38.4bln in September). The press release notes this is driven by TICFE payments.
  • The October YTD deficit stands at 96% of the updated forecast for total 2024 budget deficit vs 103% of 2023's outturn (note that November usually marks the low point for the year with the month of December usually seeing a surplus).
  • YTD total revenue rose to E280.9bln in October 2024 vs E270.3bln in Jan-Oct 2023.
    • Tax revenues YTD are broadly in-line with Jan-Oct 2023 receipts at E255.7bln (79% of 2024 forecast; vs E254.4bln in Oct 2023 and 79% of 2023 total). All of the major taxes are broadly tracking in line YTD vs last year's outturn.
    • Non-tax revenues increased significantly to E18.8bln YTD and 79% of 2024 total forecast (vs E10.3bln in Jan-Oct 2023 and 41% of 2023 total). The press release notes this is largely due to an EU RRF (part of the NGEU plan) payment that has been received earlier in the year.
  • YTD total expenditure was E428.0bln (vs E434.9bln YTD in October 2023), this represents 85% of the 2024 total expenditure forecast which is marginally higher than where it stood in October last year (83% of 2023 total).