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EUROPEAN INFLATION: French CPI Inflation Momentum Rebounded In December

EUROPEAN INFLATION

French final December HICP inflation was unrevised from the flash print on a rounded basis at 1.8% Y/Y (vs 1.68% in November) and 0.2% M/M (vs -0.15% prior). On a unrounded basis HICP inflation was 1.75% Y/Y, 1 hundredth softer than the flash reading. CPI inflation was also unrevised from flash at 1.3%. On an unrounded basis, CPI was 3 hundredths softer than the flash estimate at 1.32% Y/Y. 

  • Core CPI softened to 1.3% Y/Y (from 1.5% in November).
  • Services was revised down 1 tenth from flash to 2.2% Y/Y (2.3% in Nov) while core services also softened to 2.6%  (vs 2.8% in Nov - there is no flash for this series). The slowdown in services was in part due to prices of communication services falling 14.7%  (vs -12.2% prior).
  • The broad "manufactured products" component was unrevised from the flash print at -0.4% Y/Y (vs -0.3% prior). Core manufactured products fell at a steeper rate 0.4% Y/Y (from -0.2% in Nov).
  • The softening in services and manufactured products is offset by energy rebounding between November and December; it was unrevised from flash at 1.2% Y/Y (vs -0.7% in Nov).
  • INSEE's seasonally adjusted CPI series highlights momentum rebounding after having eased for the previous few months. CPI rose 0.4% M/M seasonally adjusted (SA), after a flat reading in November. The 3m/3m SA annualised rate rose 0.18% in December (vs a fall of 0.71 in Nov), and the 3m annualised rate rose a solid 2.63% (from -1.45% in November) - the firmest since August 2024.
  • There was a marginal decrease in the proportion of subcomponents with annual inflation rates above 2% in December (34% vs 35% prior), with the proportion of components with annual inflation rates above 6% also falling marginally to 10% from 11% in November.
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French final December HICP inflation was unrevised from the flash print on a rounded basis at 1.8% Y/Y (vs 1.68% in November) and 0.2% M/M (vs -0.15% prior). On a unrounded basis HICP inflation was 1.75% Y/Y, 1 hundredth softer than the flash reading. CPI inflation was also unrevised from flash at 1.3%. On an unrounded basis, CPI was 3 hundredths softer than the flash estimate at 1.32% Y/Y. 

  • Core CPI softened to 1.3% Y/Y (from 1.5% in November).
  • Services was revised down 1 tenth from flash to 2.2% Y/Y (2.3% in Nov) while core services also softened to 2.6%  (vs 2.8% in Nov - there is no flash for this series). The slowdown in services was in part due to prices of communication services falling 14.7%  (vs -12.2% prior).
  • The broad "manufactured products" component was unrevised from the flash print at -0.4% Y/Y (vs -0.3% prior). Core manufactured products fell at a steeper rate 0.4% Y/Y (from -0.2% in Nov).
  • The softening in services and manufactured products is offset by energy rebounding between November and December; it was unrevised from flash at 1.2% Y/Y (vs -0.7% in Nov).
  • INSEE's seasonally adjusted CPI series highlights momentum rebounding after having eased for the previous few months. CPI rose 0.4% M/M seasonally adjusted (SA), after a flat reading in November. The 3m/3m SA annualised rate rose 0.18% in December (vs a fall of 0.71 in Nov), and the 3m annualised rate rose a solid 2.63% (from -1.45% in November) - the firmest since August 2024.
  • There was a marginal decrease in the proportion of subcomponents with annual inflation rates above 2% in December (34% vs 35% prior), with the proportion of components with annual inflation rates above 6% also falling marginally to 10% from 11% in November.
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