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French election results help move lower, but above the overnight lows


STIR futures are lower across the Eurodollar, Euribor and SONIA strips, driven by relief that Le Pen didn't do better in the first round of the French election and all the polls put Macron ahead in the second round (albeit some uncomfortably close).

  • The Euribor strip is down up to 8 ticks, with the biggest moves in the Red (although this is still around 5 ticks above the overnight lows). Markets now price 17bp for July (up around 1.5bp up from last week) and 36bp for September (down from an overnight 39bp). This is up around 4bp from Friday's close but up from around 25bp on Wednesday, ahead of the ECB Accounts. 48bp is priced for October and 69bp by year-end.
  • The Eurodollar strip is also down up to 7 ticks this morning. Markets continue to price around 47bp for May, 95bp is priced for June and 224bp priced by year-end (6 metings).
  • The SONIA strip is down around 4.5 ticks in Reds/Greens/Blues. Near-term pricing has seen less of a shift, however, with 28bp priced for May, 53bp for June, 103bp for September (4 meetings) and 142bp by year-end (6 meetings).

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