French-German Day Ahead Discount Remains Firm

The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts declined slightly from their weekly high from the previous session as load factors of wind in both countries edged up on the day – albeit still relatively low, with reduced nuclear availability in France keeping FR-DE discount firm from 1 August delivery.

• The German day-ahead spot settled at €93.81/MWh from €94.87/MWh on the previous day.
• The French day-ahead spot cleared at €78.50/MWh from €79.40/MWh on the previous day.
• No negative prices in French and German power for delivery on 2 August were recorded for any delivery hours on the day.
• The French-German day-ahead baseload discount narrowed to €15.31/MWh from €15.47/MWh in the previous session.
• German wind output is expected at 3.00GW, or a 5% load factor on 2 August, slightly up from a 4% load factor forecast for 1 August. But wind is then forecast to drop to a 3% load factor on 5 August (Mon) from load factors of 4-10% over the weekend – likely support power prices.
• German power demand is forecasted at 51.2GW on 2 August down from 51.9GW forecasts for today, with demand over the weekend between 40.5-43.5GW before rising to 49.5GW on 5 August.
• In contrast, French wind output is expected at 2.58GW, or a 13% load factor on 2 August, up from 11% forecast for 1 August before being between 11-17% load factors over 3-4 August – which could drop prices coupled with lower weekend demand.
• French nuclear availability declined to 74% as of Thursday morning, down from 77% the day before, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
• Planned works at 910MW Bugey 3 have been extended to 14 August, from 6 August previously scheduled. 910MW Blayais 1 works have been extended by 10 days until 27 August.
• EdF is reducing output at the 1.31GW Golfech 1 reactor until 3 August and halting output at the 1.31GW Golfech 2 reactor until 4 August.