French-German Day-Ahead Discount Widens

The German and French day-ahead baseload contracts both fell on the day, with losses in France much sharper than the former amid a quicker fall in demand forecast on 15 August amid a public holiday in both countries. Higher temperatures are also anticipated in Berlin vs Paris – likely spurring more cooling demand in Germany.

• The German day-ahead spot settled at €85.53/MWh from €108.01/MWh on the previous day.
  
• The French day-ahead spot cleared at €42.18/MWh from €86.15/MWh on the previous day.
• Hourly prices in Germany were seen as high as €160.30/MWh for hour 20-21 compared to €84.29/MWh for the same hour in France.
• The French-German day-ahead baseload discount widen to €43.35/MWh from €21.86/MWh for 14 August delivery.
• German power demand is forecast to peak at 61.83GW on Wednesday and at and will remain firm – despite a public holiday for some parts – peaking at 56.96GW on Thursday, according to Entso-E.
• German wind output is expected at 5.2GW, or a 8% load factor on 15 August, before rising to 6.06GW, or 9%, on 16 August. This could drop power prices in the region over the period.
• In Berlin, the mean temperature is forecasted to be mostly above the seasonal norm over 14-22 August. Max temperatures are forecast to climb to 29.30C on 15 August – which could spur cooling demand.
• In contrast, the latest 6-10 days ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures have significantly revised down with temperatures to remain above and near the 30-year normal from 18 August until 23 August.
• French wind output is expected at 2.31GW, or a 12% load factor on 15 August before being at 13% the next day – which could place France at a discount to Germany.
• Power demand in France is forecast at a maximum of 50.60GW on Wednesday and of 43.61GW on Thursday, as Assumption of Mary holiday is in France is weighing on demand.
• In France, nuclear availability increased to 75% as of Wednesday morning, up from 73% on Tuesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.