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POWER: French, German Day Ahead Diverge, DE-FR Discount Widens

POWER
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French and German power prices diverged on the day, with German prices falling due to a significant increase in wind generation and a slight decrease in power consumption. In contrast, French prices remained mostly stable, supported by firm demand from the previous day, while nuclear availability remained unchanged. Both countries are expected to see a drop in wind generation, which could lift delivery costs from earlier sessions.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €52.03/MWh from €54.97/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €58.94/MWh from €58.74/MWh on the previous day.
  • France was at a €6.91/MWh premium from a €3.77/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to increase to 38.99GW, or a 60% load factor during base load on Thursday, from 35.32GW, or 55% load factor forecasted for Wednesday. Looking slightly ahead, wind will then drop slightly to 33.68GW the next day – likely adding some support to costs from the previous session.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to edge down to 60.75GW on Thursday, down from 61.05GW on Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecasts to decline to 9.1C on Thursday, from 9.8C on Wednesday but above the seasonal average of 3.9C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then edge down slightly on 20 Dec to be at 60.19GW – which could weigh on delivery costs.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to also forecasts to increase on the day to 11.47GW, or an 57% load factor during base load tomorrow from 10.67GW, or a 54% load factor forecasted for today.
  • Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at 6.98GW on 20 Dec – which could lift up spot prices.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to edge down to 61.76GW on Thursday from 61.91GW on Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecasts to decline to 9.1C on Thursday from 10.3C on Wednesday but above the seasonal average of 5.1C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then rise sharply 64.65GW on 20 Dec – likely placing some upward pressure on power prices.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 88% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • Price could be weighed on 20 December amid EdF’s new 1.6GW Flamanville 3 reactor expected to be connected to the grid on the same day.
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French and German power prices diverged on the day, with German prices falling due to a significant increase in wind generation and a slight decrease in power consumption. In contrast, French prices remained mostly stable, supported by firm demand from the previous day, while nuclear availability remained unchanged. Both countries are expected to see a drop in wind generation, which could lift delivery costs from earlier sessions.

  • The German day-ahead spot settled at €52.03/MWh from €54.97/MWh on the previous day.
  • The French day-ahead spot cleared at €58.94/MWh from €58.74/MWh on the previous day.
  • France was at a €6.91/MWh premium from a €3.77/MWh premium in the previous session.
  • Wind output in Germany is forecast to increase to 38.99GW, or a 60% load factor during base load on Thursday, from 35.32GW, or 55% load factor forecasted for Wednesday. Looking slightly ahead, wind will then drop slightly to 33.68GW the next day – likely adding some support to costs from the previous session.
  • Power demand in Germany is forecast to edge down to 60.75GW on Thursday, down from 61.05GW on Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecasts to decline to 9.1C on Thursday, from 9.8C on Wednesday but above the seasonal average of 3.9C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then edge down slightly on 20 Dec to be at 60.19GW – which could weigh on delivery costs.
  • In contrast, Wind output in France is forecast to also forecasts to increase on the day to 11.47GW, or an 57% load factor during base load tomorrow from 10.67GW, or a 54% load factor forecasted for today.
  • Looking slightly ahead, wind will then be at 6.98GW on 20 Dec – which could lift up spot prices.
  • Power demand in France is forecast to edge down to 61.76GW on Thursday from 61.91GW on Wednesday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecasts to decline to 9.1C on Thursday from 10.3C on Wednesday but above the seasonal average of 5.1C, according to Bloomberg.
  • Demand will then rise sharply 64.65GW on 20 Dec – likely placing some upward pressure on power prices.
  • Nuclear availability in France was stable at 88% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
  • Price could be weighed on 20 December amid EdF’s new 1.6GW Flamanville 3 reactor expected to be connected to the grid on the same day.