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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
POWER
French-German net exports climbed to a yearly high in May and increased by around 66% from April as day-ahead power prices in France were at a discount to Germany for the entirety of the month – reaching a yearly high on 30 May. This trend could continue as the French June contract is at a sharp discount to the German equivalent.
- French-German net exports have averaged around 2.12GW over 1-31 May from around 1.28GW in April. France has been at a net export position to Germany so far this year at an average of around 1.26GW, data from Entso-E show.
- France has been a net exporter for all hours of the day in May, with Germany only sending power between the hours of 08:00-16:00 and 20:00-21:00.
- This is slightly different from April when Germany was at least sending some power during all hours of the day – albeit still at a net import position to France.
- PV output in Germany has averaged about 11.6GW in May, up from 8.95GW in April and the highest this year, data from Entso-E show.
- But onshore and offshore wind generation has fallen to 8.37GW and 2GW, respectively in May from 13.1GW and 3GW in April – supporting day-ahead power prices.
- German gas and coal-fired generation has fallen slower on the month, averaging 4.77GW and 1.47GW, respectively, compared to 5.51GW and 2.28GW in April.
- In contrast, French nuclear generation has remained firm on the month at 37.24GW compared to 36.93GW in April – keeping baseload generation steady.
- Looking ahead, the French-German June discount is at €41.10/MWh discount at the time of writing – indicating that France could remain at a strong net export position to Germany over the month.
- French nuclear output is expected to fall by 9% in June from May, with about 59% of availability, according to BNEF.
- French grid limitations that constrained power exports ended in the first week of May. France has raised its power transmission capacity for cross-zonal trading last week to around 70% - similar level to other operators - after RTE’s interconnection capacity for cross-zonal trading had fallen to 40% from mid-March to mid-April, Creg told Montel this week.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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