French June Power Extends Decline

The French front-month power base-load contract is easing back, trading at the lowest since the start of the month amid nuclear availability above the seasonal norm and limited cooling demand. German June power base load is trading higher today but remains within yesterday’s range, tracking gains in European gas prices and carbon allowances.

• France Base Power JUN 24 down 2.1% at 40 EUR/MWh
• Germany Base Power JUN 24 up 0.8% at 66.45 EUR/MWh
• EUA DEC 24 up 1.4% at 71.2 EUR/MT
• TTF Gas JUN 24 up 1.5% at 30.1 EUR/MWh
• Rotterdam Coal JUN 24 up 0.8% at 107.55 USD/MT
• TTF front month is edging higher with prices holding between €29.15/MWh and €30.215/MWh so far this week with fundamentals relatively unchanged on the day.
• EU ETS DEC 24 are trading slightly higher but remains within yesterday’s range this morning, supported by gains in European gas prices. The next EUA EU Primary Auction CAP 3 will clear today at 11:00 CET.
• The latest forecast for German wind output suggested a downward revision for this week but an upward revision in output for early next week. Combined onshore and offshore wind output is forecast at 5.87GW to 27.48GW during 16-22 May. Solar PV output in Germany has been slightly revised up to reach 11.98GW to 28.55GW during peak load on 16 to 24 May according to spotrenewables.
• German power demand is forecast to rise to a maximum of 62.25GW on Wednesday and of 62.38GW on Thursday.
• In France, the latest forecasts estimated wind output to reach 1.6GW to 11.62GW during base-load hours on 16-24 May, slightly higher on the day. Solar PV output is forecast at 4.3GW to 7.5GW during peak load on 16 to 24 May according to spotrenewables.
• French nuclear availability has been stable on the day at 70% of capacity, RTE data cited by Bloomberg showed, with availability currently well above the seasonal normal.
• The 905MW Chinon 1 reactor is scheduled to return today 23:00 CET. Works at the facility began in early February. The unplanned outage at the 890MW Dampierre 2 reactor has been extended by one day until 18 May.
• French power demand is expected to reach a maximum of 52.25GW on Wednesday and of 52.15GW on Thursday. The latest ECMWF weather forecasts suggested temperatures in Paris to rise to a maximum of just above 23 °C in the period to 24 May, unlikely to spur a lot of cooling demand.