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Fresh Lows, 0.6000 Test Within Sight

NZD

NZD/USD is the weakest performer within the G10 space, the currency off by ~0.50%. This puts us in the 0.6010/15 region, which is fresh lows back to Nov last year. A break sub 0.6000 would open up early Nov 2022 highs near 0.5940.

  • NZD has been weighed down by the China PMI misses, with the spill over impact to equities an additional headwind. We are seeing some stability in NZ-US 2yr swap spreads, last around +70bps, versus recent lows closer to +60bps, but this is helping much at this stage.
  • On the data front, the ANZ May business activity and confidence outlook suggested that activity likely troughed in H1, but inflation pressures continue to moderate (see this link).
  • AUD/NZD got to 1.0820, but sits slightly lower now. Stronger than expected Apr CPI data in AU helping limit AUD's fall, with dips in AUD/USD sub 0.6500 supported so far. Underlying inflation pressures in Australia still appear to be moderating though (see this link).
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