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ANZ Survey Signalling Inflation Moderation & GDP Trough


ANZ business confidence rose to -31.1 in May from -43.8, which is the highest since December 2021, but still well below the +4.3 historical average. Business activity outlook rose to -4.5 from -7.6 and while it has been improving over 2023 also remains well below average. Activity is signalling that growth probably troughed in H1 2023 and inflation expectations that CPI inflation should moderate further.

  • Price/cost related components remained elevated but continued to moderate. Inflation expectations peaked in November 2022 at 6.4% and have been gradually easing since. In May they fell to 5.5% from 5.7%, which is still too high but heading in the right direction. Pricing intentions also fell further to 52.4 from 53.7 but still over double the historical average. Business costs eased to 84.1 from 84.2 and down from the 95.9 peak in early 2022.
  • Other components showed that capacity pressures are easing in the economy with employment expectations falling to -5.7 from -2.4 and capacity utilisation to -1.2 from +0.8.
NZ CPI y/y% vs ANZ business inflation expectations

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

NZ GDP y/y% vs ANZ business activity outlook

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv

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