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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free Access###From 2018, the ECB cuts APP from........>
ECB VIEW: ###From 2018, the ECB cuts APP from E60bln to E30bln but redemptions
matter. Below is MNI's calculation of gross buying changes from Q4 to Q1.
- Recently in the APP, the ECB spent E50bln on EGBs, E7bln on corporate bonds,
E3bln on covered bonds and tiny amounts of ABS.
- Across all programmes, redemptions amount to a monthly average of E7.7bln in
Q1 2018, up slightly from the E4.9bln average in Q4 2017.
- ECB speakers hint that private sector bonds will be purchased in a greater net
percentage of the total APP than now.
- Arbitrarily assuming that the private sector programmes will be 80% of the
2017 net buying, then net PSPP buying falls from E50bln per month to E22bln.
- If we then include reinvested redemptions, then gross buying for PSPP drops
from a monthly average of around E53.6bln in Q4 to E26.9bln in Q1 next year
(roughly half), although numbers rise as redemptions ramp up later in the year.
For covered bonds, the numbers are E3.3bln in Q4, rising to E3.8bln in Q1 and
E7.1bln for corporates in Q4 and E5.8bln in Q1. These are not forecasts, just
reasonable assumptions.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.