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Front End Yields Hit Fresh High Since Jan’08

CANADA
  • GoCs continue to outperform Treasuries today but front-end yields have nevertheless been dragged through the prior cycle high of 3.476%, currently +6.8bps at 3.484%.
  • This creates a fresh high since early Jan-2008 after the prior peak on Jun 14 following the WSJ hinting the first of the 75bp FOMC hikes at what was then peak rate hike fervour.
  • However, as opposed to the bear-flattening since in Treasuries, GoCs have seen a belly-led cheapening with a modest steepening in 2s10s, albeit remaining heavily inverted -47bps.
  • Today’s data have had little impact – weekly consumer confidence improved slightly and has now picked up for five of the last six weeks but remains historically depressed – with US PMIs and the Richmond Fed manufacturing index clearly in focus.

Canada 2Y and 10Y GoC yields plus 2s5s and 2s10s spreadsSource: Bloomberg

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