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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SCOTLAND
Angus Robertson, the bookies' favourite to take over from Nicola Sturgeon as head of the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) and Scottish First Minister, has ruled himself out of the contest. This leaves the race wide open.
- Without Robertson, the next two most favoured potential candidates among political bettors are Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Economy Kate Forbes and Cabinet Secretary for Health and Social Care Humza Yousaf. Data from Smarkets gives Forbes a 30% implied probability of winning, with Yousaf on 22.2%
- Forbes has been seen as a rising star in the SNP, having unexpectedly taken the financial brief in 2020. However, her positions on some social issues are more conservative than those of the progressive left of the SNP and its Green Party coalition allies. There is some risk that if Forbes wins it could risk the continuation of the Scottish gov't in its present form.
- Yousaf is viewed as the 'continuity Sturgeon' candidate with regards to social issues. However, the ongoing crisis in the Scottish health service could damage Yousaf's prospects of gaining the first minister's office.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Becoming Next Scottish First Minister, %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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