FTN's Jim Vogel said "without near-term.....>

US TSYS: FTN's Jim Vogel said "without near-term guidance from bellwether 10s,

intermediate portfolios should be looking to the 5s/30s curve for important rate

clues." He said "the 15bp range on 5s is roughly equivalent to a daily barometer

for the first two rate hikes of 2018. Near 1.80%, the forecast is no rate hikes

in 1H 2018. Up around 1.95%, the market sees one each at March and June on the

way to a total of three hikes next year. That's a simplification, but it works

well for understanding the market for the next two months."

- he said "30-yr's 15bp range captures i) global fixed income sentiment; ii) a

growing tail of the inflation trade; and iii) asset allocation across risk

assets." He said 5/30Y at 105 bps "has room toward 102" basis points "without

signaling any big change."