March 28, 2024 14:18 GMT
Fund Flows & Supply Expectations
CREDIT MACRO
- $IG pared back some of yesterday's outflows - over the week ETF flows look muted. Similar trends in €IG ETF's with reported total flows (for week ending Wed) flat - Indicating conventional fund inflows sat back locally after strong inflows the prior week. £IG flows were reported flat as well.
- $HY continued to see sizeable ETF inflows of $500m - its had $1.5b in inflows over the week & should help it reverse the 1b+ reported total (ETF & mutual) outflows last week.
- Primary has been busier than expected with €22b (vs. c€16b) in Euro & Sterling market & $25b (vs. c$20b) in $IG.
- €/£ supply comes in at €125b this month - that includes £8b in Sterling IG & €13b in HY. A relatively firm March for us but follows Jan/Feb supply that failed to see the spike in activity dollar markets did. $IG March supply is at $145b - marginally above expectations but below the $200b+ issuance we saw in Jan/Feb & March's through 2020-22.
- Supply tends to slow down in April across all 3 regions. $IG midpoint for expectations (syndicate desks, bbg) is for a sizeable slow down to $100b. No expectations for us but historically April has tended to have €80-100b in supply.
- Euro/Sterling expectations are at ~€12b for the 4-day week ahead.
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