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Further Front End Outperformance, RBC Tactically Pay 5Y Swaps

CANADA
  • GoCs holding limited moves post-open (yields 0.5-1.5bp higher) as the front end marginally underperforms Treasuries, with 2YY +1.5bp vs +4bp.
  • It builds on yesterday’s larger widening of the negative Can-US yield differential, now back out to -49bps vs -30bps at the end of last week/very start of this week.
  • In rates space, RBC look to tactically pay 5y CAD swaps with an entry 3.00% and target 3.4% arguing that whilst they’re bullish duration in 2023, the move in yields has gone too far.
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