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Further Labor Data To Add To The Mix Before FOMC Decision

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates for the March FOMC are nearly back at pre-JOLTS/Conf Board levels whilst they’ve unwound about half of the increase for late 2024 meetings.
  • It leaves a cumulative 11.5bp of cuts for March, just about three cuts for July with 76bp and 133bp for 2024.
  • A large part of the move came in the second half of yesterday’s session, naturally paring the sell-off (perhaps on some weaker details within JOLTS including further quits rate moderation) before an added hand from big-tech earnings weakness after the close.
  • Today of course sees the FOMC decision (MNI preview) but first lands ADP and then more importantly the ECI - of added note considering the reaction to JOLTS yesterday - along with Treasury refunding amounts.

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