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Further Sharp Unwinding Of BAX Inversion

CANADA
  • Along with 2Y GoC yields touching new session highs with +9bps at 4.05%, and in turn pushing new highs since Mar 10 (as early US regional banking distress spilled over to Credit Suisse), shorter term rates also continue to sell-off.
  • OIS is now getting closer to 50% odds of a 25bp hike with the Jun 7 BoC decision whilst BAX futures implied yields are up 2bps for the front Jun’23, 11bps for the Dec’23 and as much as 13bps for 1H24 contracts.
  • The combination sees BAM3/Z3 tighten further to -0.07 from -0.16 yesterday and -0.315 on Monday’s close prior to CPI. It’s the highest since Mar 9 and having only briefly turned positive with +0.045 on Mar 8 prior to SVB’s issues emerging with positive levels otherwise last seen in Apr’22. The outright levels are in stark contrast to the -0.65 in the SOFR equivalent.

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