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Further Significant Cheapening As TY Clears Key Support

US TSYS
  • A clearance of key support for TYU3 at 112-29+ (trading at 112-22+ and next eyeing 112-16) appears to have let the rest of the yield curve shunt higher.
  • Front end to belly yields are currently up~12bps despite most recently pulling back off fresh highs since Mar 10, in sizeable cheapening pressure ahead of the tomorrow’s FOMC decision.
  • The increase in front end yields see Tsys underperform core EU FI (5-6bps higher on the day) but still significantly outperform Gilts (+26bps) at the earlier cash close after strong labour data have sent BoE rate expectations surging.
  • FOMC-dated OIS doesn’t shake off the post-CPI hit for near-term meetings with just +2bps for tomorrow and a cumulative +17bps for July (-5bps since the data) but the Dec’23 has continued to increase to 5.14% for +7bps on the day and just 14bp of cuts from the 5.28% terminal now seen in September.

Source: Bloomberg

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