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JGBS: Futures Cheaper As US Tsys Weigh

JGBS
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In early Tokyo trade, JGB futures are weaker, -15 compared to settlement levels.

  • Cash US tsys have opened to the week slightly richer across benchmarks after closing last week with another heavy session.
  • The US tsy 10Y yield climbed to 4.625% (+4bps) on Friday - the highest since late May'24.
  • US tsy curves forged steeper as the short end outperformed on Friday: 2s10s +4.274 at 29.303, 5s30s +1.979 at 35.496.
  • Short-end bid helped projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain slightly vs. Friday morning levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.7bp, Mar'25 -13.3bp (-13.1bp), May'25 -18.5bp (-17.7bp), Jun'25 -26.5bp (-25.7bp).
  • Tsy futures had pared losses early on Friday after Wholesale Inventories came out lower than expected w/ modest down-revision to prior. Retail Inventories in-line with expectations while the Advanced Goods Trade Balance came out a little wider than October's, with the $102.9B shortfall above $98.3B prior (and $101.2B expected).
  • Today, the local calendar will see Jibun Bank PMI Mfg data. 
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In early Tokyo trade, JGB futures are weaker, -15 compared to settlement levels.

  • Cash US tsys have opened to the week slightly richer across benchmarks after closing last week with another heavy session.
  • The US tsy 10Y yield climbed to 4.625% (+4bps) on Friday - the highest since late May'24.
  • US tsy curves forged steeper as the short end outperformed on Friday: 2s10s +4.274 at 29.303, 5s30s +1.979 at 35.496.
  • Short-end bid helped projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain slightly vs. Friday morning levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.7bp, Mar'25 -13.3bp (-13.1bp), May'25 -18.5bp (-17.7bp), Jun'25 -26.5bp (-25.7bp).
  • Tsy futures had pared losses early on Friday after Wholesale Inventories came out lower than expected w/ modest down-revision to prior. Retail Inventories in-line with expectations while the Advanced Goods Trade Balance came out a little wider than October's, with the $102.9B shortfall above $98.3B prior (and $101.2B expected).
  • Today, the local calendar will see Jibun Bank PMI Mfg data.