February 05, 2023 22:32 GMT
Futures Consolidate NFP-Driven Losses, RBA Moves Into View
Aussie bond futures maintain the bulk of the overnight session losses that came in lieu of the U.S. NFP print, with little in the way of meaningful domestic & macro news flow to trigger notable Monday adjustments (participants have chosen to largely look through Sino-U.S. tension and the latest whispers surrounding the successor for outgoing BoJ Governor Kuroda, although those matters may have resulted in a marginal uptick from post-Sydney lows).
- That leaves YM -13.0 & XM -10.5, while wider cash ACGB trade sees the major benchmarks running 8-12bp cheaper as the curve bear flattens.
- Bills run 6-15bp cheaper through the reds as the strip bear steepens. RBA dated OIS continues to essentially fully price a 25bp hike for tomorrow’s meeting, while terminal cash rate pricing has pushed higher, printing back above 3.70% this morning, in lieu of spill over from Friday’s U.S. labour market report.
- Today’s local docket is headlined by the Q4 retail sales volume print, with the Melbourne Institute inflation metrics also set to cross. These releases should be overshadowed by the spectre of the impending RBA decision, where another 25bp hike to is expected. A number of analysts believe that a 50bp move will be seriously considered but noone in the Bloomberg Survey is expecting the Board to deploy such a step.