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Futures Higher In Overnight Dealings Ahead Of Weekend, IP & CAPU Data Due

JGBS

In post-Tokyo trade ahead of the weekend, JGB futures are richer, closing +18 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys finished 1-10bps richer across the major benchmarks on Friday, the curve bull flattened.

  • US tsys firmed on Friday as risk-off flows provided support to the space. Reports that an Israeli invasion of Gaza was imminent weighed on sentiment. However, gains were trimmed after the latest UofMich data crossed. The report was mixed. Participants focused on the Inflation Expectations beat and US tsys ticked away from session highs.
  • FOMC-dated OIS were stable, with the terminal rate expectations sitting at 5.40% in December. There are ~50bps of cuts by September 2024.
  • The US data docket is relatively light this week. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Thursday.
  • The other focus point remains FX intervention risks given the proximity to 150.00, although the IMF stated it sees no conditions for Japan to intervene in FX markets, see this BBG link for more details here.
  • Today the local calendar sees Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation for August, along with BOJ Rinban Operations covering 1-10-year and 25-year+ JGBs.
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