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Futures Pricing Increasingly Aggressive ECB Cuts

STIR

ECB rates are seen peaking after roughly 146bp of further hikes by the July or September 2023 meetings (implying depo rates just under 3.50%).

  • But there is an increasingly aggressive cutting cycle being priced beyond that: 76bp in cuts from the peak to end-2024, as implied by Sep'23 / Dec'24 Euribor futures.
  • Coming into 2023, only 60bp of cuts were seen over that period. See chart.

Source: BBG, MNI

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