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Futures Rally Extends In Morning Trade Despite Better Than Expected Activity Data

JGBS

In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures have extended the overnight uptick, +9 compared to settlement levels, despite stronger-than-expected domestic activity data. Retail sales rise 5.3% y/y in November versus +5% est. Meanwhile, industrial production (preliminary) fell 0.9% in November m/m versus the Bloomberg survey median of -1.6%.

  • International investment flows showed foreign investors sold Y2.2tn of Japanese bonds last week.
  • According to MNI’s technicals team, JGB futures built on recent gains on Wednesday. The topping of initial resistance at 146.52, the Dec 7 high, is bullish and opens resistance at 147.27, the Dec 06 high, and 148.74, the Jul 24 high. 143.44, the Oct 31 low, marks key support and a medium-term bear trigger. Initial support to watch is at 144.60, the Dec 11 / 8 low.
  • Cash JGBs are dealing mixed, with yield movements bounded by +/- 2bps. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.4bps lower at 0.597% versus the recent rally low of 0.555% (20 Dec).
  • Swaps are richer out to the 20-year and flat beyond. Swap spreads are wider out to the 10-year and narrower beyond.
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