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Futures Spike Higher, Ueda States Gradual Progress Towards Price Goal Evident

JGBS

JGB futures sit below session highs. We were last at 144.46, +0.38. Session highs came around near the lunch time break, at 144.55. These levels are a touch above highs from earlier last week, but broadly we remain within recent ranges. These moves have outperformed a slightly softer tone to US Tsy futures, although we are up from session lows (last near 108-07).

  • Much of the focus today in Japan has been comments from BoJ Governor Ueda. The Governor reiterating that it is unlikely 10yr yields will spending much time above 1.0%. Ueda stated the country is getting gradually closer to its price goal, but it is not within sight yet, nor could Ueda state when that was likely to be. Next year's spring wage negotiations will be very important to the outlook (BBG).
  • The Governor stressed large scale bond buying/continued easing would be maintained until the inflation target is in sight. BOJ operations totaled 1.825trln in bonds purchases earlier, from the 1yr to +25yr tenor.
  • The BoJ minutes were also released for the Sep meeting but didn't shift sentiment greatly. Note tomorrow on the data front Sep cash earnings in real and nominal terms, along with household spending data.
  • in the cash JGB space, the 10yr yield sits near 0.87%, but hasn't seen a great deal of fresh downside after opening sharply lower in yield terms. The 7yr and 20yr are down slightly more in yield terms (-6bps). Front end yields are off by -2-3.5bps. It is a similar story in the swap space (the 10yr down 5bps to just under 1.05%).

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