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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MEXICO
On 30 August, the multi-party Broad Front for Mexico (Frente Amplio por México, FAM) effectively declared Senator Xóchitl Gálvez as their candidate ahead of the June 2024 presidential election. Her likely opponent from the incumbent leftist MORENA is former Head of Gov't of Mexico City Claudia Sheinbaum. Early hypothetical scenario opinion polling gives Sheinbaum a consistent lead over Gálvez nine months out from the election.
- The FAM alliance is formed by three major parties -
- The centre-left Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) that dominated Mexican politics for much of the 20th century.
- The centre-right National Action Party (PAN) of former presidents Vincente Fox and Felipe Calderon.
- The social democratic Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) who incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador was the presidential candidate for in 2006 and 2012.
- Galvez is now viewed as the presumptive FAM candidate after the PRI leadership announced their backing for the senator - who is a member of the PRD but caucuses with PAN - over their own party hopeful Beatriz Paredes.
- In three mid-to-late August polls, Sheinbaum led Galvez by 12%, 10% and 9%, and given that a simple plurality is required to win the presidency this would be enough to give MORENA another term in office.
Chart 1. Hypothetical Opinion Polling with Galvez and Sheinbaum as FAM and MORENA Candidates, %
Source: AS/COA, El Pais, El Financiero, Reforma, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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