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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
NATURAL GAS
European prompt gas prices could fall below the summer if Jan and Feb are mild and drive a contango to minimise storage withdrawals in late-February and March according to ICIS.
- The next couple of summers are back in relative parity after trading in backwardation for months due to the global scarcity of gas. A structural shift lower on front two years is potentially approaching as backwardation could flatten further if near term weakness persists and weighs on Sum24 prices.
- The greatest risk has shifted to next winter suggesting more assured supply this winter but uncertainty for next winter.
- The curve from Sum 26 has moved relatively little recently with muted impact from near term drivers. After this point in time, the oil-indexed curve and the cost of landed US LNG into Europe are drivers.
- The Q1 2024 – Q1 2025 spread is down to a low of around -4.6€/MWh this week while the Sum24-Sum25 spread has fallen from 11.3€/MWh in October to a low of just below 0.75€/MWh on Dec 5 according to data via Bloomberg.
Source: ICIS
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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