Gas Mid-Day Summary: TTF Dips into Losses

Front month TTF prices have reversed previous gains after reaching a peak of 41.75€/MWh earlier today. The market is still maintaining a bearish tone with supplies coping with the recent cold weather in Europe but still sensitive to any possible supply disruptions.

• TTF JAN 24 down -0.3% at 39.84€/MWh
• TTF Q1 24 down -0.3% at 40.1€/MWh
• Temperatures in NW and central Europe are forecast above normal next week after warming over the weekend. They are however forecast to cool back to near normal from the middle of December.
• European natural gas storage is back within the previous five-year range at 92.15% full on Dec 6 according to GIE data after recent high withdrawal rates. The seasonal five-year average is 82.25%.
• European LNG sendout remains strong at 474mcm/d on Dec 6 with the average so far in Dec at 454mcm/d.
• Pipeline supplies into Europe from Norway up again to 351.2mcm/d but could dip slightly from Dec 10 amid further planned works at the Dvalin field.
• The EU is set to allow its member states the power to halt gas imports from Russian and Belarus according to the FT Friday.
• Withdrawals rates have been holding above normal since Nov 26 to bring total European storage back down within the previous five year range.
• EU overall gas demand remains tepid and is expected about 8% below 2022 levels in 2023 according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Winter Outlook.
• European prompt gas prices could fall below the summer if Jan and Feb are mild and drive a contango to minimise storage withdrawals in late-February and March according to ICIS.