Gas Mid-Day Summary: TTF Falls Further on Improved Supply

TTF front month continued to trade lower driven by recovering LNG sendout and the gradual return of Norwegian supply from maintenance. US natgas eased back on lower LNG export flows.

• TTF AUG 23 down -1.4% at 28.65€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 down -1.5% at 46.33€/MWh
• TTF front month recovered from a daily low of €27.775/MWh.
• LNG sendout to Europe has recovered to 372mcm/d on 10 July. Flows remain down MoM.
• Pipeline imports from Norway are starting to recover at 267mcm/d today with several facilities such as in Norway returning from annual maintenance this week. The maintenance at the Troll field with 21.5mcm/d of unavailable capacity is returning on Friday, one day later than previosuly scheduled.
• EU gas in storage was up to 80.1% full on 10 July compared with the five-year average of 65%.
• The EU will publish today the joint gas tender results. EU firms submitted bids for 16bcm of gas demand in the second round.
• US Henry Hub front month eased back from an overnight high of around 2.75$/mmbtu with lower LNG export flows this week.
• US Natgas AUG 23 down -1.5% at 2.69$/mmbtu
• The Henry Hub spot price is forecast to increase 19% from June to 2.60$/mmbtu in July, with 2H23 averaging more than 2.8$/mmbtu according to the EIA STEO report.