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Gas Prices Continue Trending Lower, Goldmans Cuts 2024 Forecast

LNG
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Natural gas prices are down sharply in February as the heating season approaches its end in the midst of continued mild weather and high inventories. European storage is at more than 66% full. European LNG fell 1.1% on Friday to EUR 24.69 to be down 18.3% this month and almost 24% in 2024 to date. Norwegian outages have not disrupted the downtrend.

  • Goldman Sachs is expecting LNG prices to fall in 2026-2028 when Qatar and the US’ increased export capabilities come on line, which will mean that Europe won’t have to compete with other regions for available gas. It estimates that close to 200mn tonnes/year of gas liquefaction capacity will be available by 2028, over double the flows from Russia Europe received. Goldmans still sees winter 2024-25 as a risk to prices. It has cut its 2024 forecast 24% due to milder weather and lower coal prices.
  • US natural gas prices rose 1.4% on Friday but are down 23.7% in February to date on mild weather and strong supplies.
  • North Asian gas fell sharply at the end of last week by 8.3% to be down 10.1% this month.
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Natural gas prices are down sharply in February as the heating season approaches its end in the midst of continued mild weather and high inventories. European storage is at more than 66% full. European LNG fell 1.1% on Friday to EUR 24.69 to be down 18.3% this month and almost 24% in 2024 to date. Norwegian outages have not disrupted the downtrend.

  • Goldman Sachs is expecting LNG prices to fall in 2026-2028 when Qatar and the US’ increased export capabilities come on line, which will mean that Europe won’t have to compete with other regions for available gas. It estimates that close to 200mn tonnes/year of gas liquefaction capacity will be available by 2028, over double the flows from Russia Europe received. Goldmans still sees winter 2024-25 as a risk to prices. It has cut its 2024 forecast 24% due to milder weather and lower coal prices.
  • US natural gas prices rose 1.4% on Friday but are down 23.7% in February to date on mild weather and strong supplies.
  • North Asian gas fell sharply at the end of last week by 8.3% to be down 10.1% this month.