Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Climbs

TTF Front month has found support during the day, boosted by an escalation in the Middle Eastern conflict and the month-long outage at one of Freeport LNG’s three production trains.

• TTF FEB 24 up 0.8% at 28.3€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0.9% at 29.23€/MWh
• Temperature forecasts in NW and central Europe are showing above normal is expected for the coming week.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are stable with today nominated up to 348.3mcm/d and in line with the average seen during January.
• European natural gas storage is still up at 72.02% full on Jan 27 according to GIE data.
• The EU is expected to end the heating season in early April with around 53% of gas in storages, slightly below 2023 levels of 55.4%, Berenberg said in a note.
• Gazprom is unlikely to renew its gas transit agreement with Ukraine which expires in Dec 2024; it may still book capacity through regular auctions, Montel said.
• Construction of Russia's planned new Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline to China could be delayed according to Mongolian Prime Minister L. Oyun-Erdene via FT.
• The Biden administration’s pause on new LNG export permit approvals could delay five planned projects totalling 62mtpa which already hold binding and non-binding supply deals.
• The 2024 global gas demand is forecast close to the average growth rate displayed during 2010-21 but only about half of that growth is structural - IEA analyst Greg Molnar.
• Adnoc Gas has signed a 10-year supply agreement with India’s Gail to deliver around 0.5mtpa of LNG starting in 2026 according to Bloomberg.
• QatarEnergy has signed a deal with Excelerate Energy Inc to supply LNG to Bangladesh for 15 years according to Bloomberg.